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12 pts

Opinion on  Whole Foods Market Inc (WFMI)     Sector: Services  >  Industry: Retail (Grocery)
Bearish on WFMI ...

Jul 23, 2008 02:38 PM UTC
Return Risk
-34.20% MID
Analyst

Oil prices are triple what they were when WFMI peaked in 2005, CPI increase of 1.1% is highest since June 2005, and home prices are still falling. Middle class consumers are no longer able to donate their weekly paycheck to WFMI now that they are facing high gas prices, declining incomes, and the mortgage trainwreck. Aggressive expansion by WFMI (new stores and purchase of Wild Oats) has been countered by slowing economy.  Look for stock to take another hit when they miss earnings report on 8/5. If you think the US economy will recover by mid-2009, then buy on the dip and hold WFMI through Sep. 09.


Update 08/06:

Monstrously eccentric CEO and health fanatic John Mackey has finally taken Whole Foods (WFMI) down to a level from which it is unlikely to recover. Shares are off 12% after hours to $20 against a 52-week high $$53.65

Earnings for the last quarter dropped to $33.9 million from $49.1 million in the same period a year ago. WFMI will scramble to keep itself together.

Among other things, Whole Foods is is reducing the number of stores expected to open in fiscal year 2009 to approximately 15 and has cut all discretionary capital expenditure budgets not related to new stores by 50%. The firm will also is suspending its quarterly cash dividend . Since WFMI had a yield of 3.7%, the cut means something.

To nail the lid of the coffin down tight, Whole Foods announced it expects sales growth of 6% to 10% for the year -- rather than the previously stated 25% to 30% growth. It said comparable-store sales are expected to grow 1% to 5%, down from the previously anticipated 7.5% to 9.5% growth.


WFMI:  This call was made on 07/23/08 @ $22.87
Rating:   Negative   $22.87 (07/23/08)
Gain/Loss:   +62.75% in 122 days


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