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3 pts

Opinion on  PHLX/KBW Bank Index (BKX)
Market has a gun & it will use it....

Jul 15, 2008 11:34 AM UTC
Intelligence
Return Risk
-16.42% LOW
Sr. Analyst

Recent News   Fundamental Analysis   Analyst Recommendation  

Which of the regional banks is next to fall after IndyMac? The market is looking to create some more victiums in its search for a bottom still a few months and a lot of pain off.

Cramer and others are telling people the bodies are coming and the market is now expecting it. Who are these bad banks of which Cramer speaks? He broke them up into two tiers:

The Worst:
Downey DOWNEY FINL CORP (DSL), Corus (CORS), FirstFed Financial (FED) and BankUnited (BKUNA).

Almost as Bad as the Worst:
National City [NCC], Washington Mutual [WM] and First Horizon [FHN].

Dividend cuts will come next as there are likely several out there short of cash who's cost of borrowing will be too high.


BKX:  This call was made on 07/15/08 @ $50.0
Rating:   Negative   $50.0 (07/15/08)
Closed:   09/08/2008 @ $68.83 (-37.66% in 55 days)
Target:   $40.00 (-20.00%) in Six months


Comments (2)

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gazzy   N/A     0 point   commented 176 days ago reply

What is with the rumor about Wachovia going belly up?

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Intelligence
joeyjoejoe   53%     1 point   commented 176 days ago reply

I don't think it will go bankrupt I think it will get seriously harmed. No where do I say it will go under. The bank failures will likely be the smaller banks but the market does see weakness in WACH so you never know. Wachovia just sold their NY HQ at a discount one year after acquiring the stake and I've read in the media that they have eatten through have the capital they raised in the spring. I would say there is a good possiblity that they will be bought sometime in the next year at a rediculously low price but I don't think belly up is likely.


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joeyjoejoe previously rated BKX
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