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20 pts

Opinion on  Mechel OAO (MTL)     Sector: Basic Materials  >  Industry: Iron & Steel
Russian mid-cap miner

Jul 01, 2008 01:45 PM UTC
Gekko
Return Risk
+5.11% MID
Sr. Associate

Mechel mines coal, iron ore, nickel, and limestone.  They have been killed recently due to enforced coal price cuts and the general slaughter in the Russian equity markets.  First of all, the price cuts apply only to domestic sales of coking coal, we're talking 8% of revenues. 
  I believe that the market has overreacted.  This company isn't in danger of being stripped of it's best parts by Mother Russia.  I would average down on this pick.


Update 09/30:

  The Russian market has been selling off for quite some time as they are not immune from the global credit crunch or crisis of confidence.  There have been allegations of government fraud .  Russia has a lot of the classic emerging market problems: poor governance, lack of transparency, and dependence on the resource sector.  Remember, this market is very young,  so there will be bumps along the way.  Remember what Warren Buffett says about investing: if your stocks drop 50% and you panic, then you shouldn't be in equities.  This goes double for emerging markets stocks.


Update 09/30:

  Bespoke has issued a HOLD rating on the stock.  Here's the research report .  They are very skittish as they seem further weakening in commodity prices.


MTL:  This call was made on 07/01/08 @ $48.17
Rating:   Positive   $48.17 (07/01/08)
Closed:   10/10/2008 @ $7.45 (-84.53% in 101 days)
Target:   in > one year


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