Opinion on  General Motors Corp (GM)     Sector: Consumer Cyclical  >  Industry: Auto & Truck Manufacturers
GM + Oil = The Big Bear's new short

Congratulations on becoming the best investor on Social picks. :)

GM should have got rid of GMAC its financial division when it had the opportunity.The suckers at Cerebrus would have taken the loss but they did not exploit the opportunity.

As for strong overseas growth fuelling growth,I think that is going to slow down.I read an article(by Paul Farell if I remember right) explaining the recent financial crisis in 4 stages
1.subprime crisis which has already hit
2.credit crunch which is ongoing
3.US consumer reducing spending -ongoing but it has not fully hit since retail sales are still strong and the government is sending out rebates etc.My point people still have money but soon they won't have that luxury.
4.And the final part,global growth slowing down as US demand slows down.This has not really been factored in and most companies with overseas business are showing good results.But is this sustainable.I do not think so.So the whole "overseas markets" argument is going to face headwinds going forward.Nobody wants GM SUV in the states,soon nobody would want them anywhere in the world.

Good call.I am sure it will be as successful as your financial shorts.

To add to Thomas point, we deal with retailers all the time. (I am in the logistic business.) Our customers are forecasting a not so good Christmas/holiday seasons.

There are already factories closures in southern China.

I agree with the thesis for GM. However, IMHO, the trade is getting a bit crowded at the moment.

Best of luck

Holy Cow, I just wandered over here from Google Finance ... what a difference! Could this be an anomoly, or do postings here actually speak of general market dynamics?! I'll happily stay tuned in. .......... p.s.: How might one act to gain from the global food supply shortage/inflation? farm equipment? fertilizer? ???

Why not buy Quantum it is a public company and makes a better car than Tesla? Fisker's Karma is a far superior solution also have you forgotten about the GM Volt?

GM when it dips again would be a good buy in my opinion. I think it will revisit $10 but it wont live there at least not in 2010 when the volt is on the road.

Hopefully GM and Ford can bring there smaller cars in from over sees and hopefully will start building them here. This will help hold the stocks until the both of them come to market with a product people really want AKA Volt. GM is my favorite pick of the two. I think Ford will need to purchase Quantum or buy there technology to get it's self into the game. Ford is currently one of Quantum's customers. But GM owns about a 7% interest of Quantum with a clause that when Quantum sells any joint technologies they will have to pay GM a port of the sales.

So, GM is going to win either way in my opinion.

Fisker will lead the way here in the states being the first to market with the much needed Q drive concept that the GM volt will be using.

Electric Plug ins with on board power generation for long trips. Minimum Fuel economy on long trips of 100mpg with the gas generator on board.

These vehicles will be future proofed you can upgrade there batteries, change there on board generator to a Diesel, Natural gas or Hydrogen which should be end game for on board generators.

Bright Future for Auto's in America.

Also, think about it this way the Volt's suggest MSRP is $30,000. If gas at the pump goes to $2 people will still be waiting in line for these cars.

So it doesn't matter which way OIL goes in the big picture GM, Fisker and Quantum are going to do well.

Buy low sale high so I would buy then cost average if I had the opportunity.

knowin2holdem Member Yahoo Boards

Bear, You are on the right track. I agree with most of your shorts. Keep up the good work.