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3 pts

Opinion on  Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI)     Sector: Financial  >  Industry: Regional Banks
Bearish on MI ...

Jun 23, 2008 06:06 PM UTC
Return Risk
-10.92% HIGH
Analyst

I am extremely bear-sternish on MI Bank & "Trust". Goldman downgraded them to "CRITICAL SELL" on June 11, due to being overly leveraged in the Sub-Prime Mortgage Mkt. The Sup-Prime Mortgage loan meltdown and general banking sector seems to be experiencing a serious liquidity problems due to sustained high fuel prices, extreme long-term lows in consumer confidence, the downturn in jobs and the general economy, and defaults on various consumer loans, including mortgages & credit cards. Almost everyone except the top elites and market insiders seem to be feeling a serious economic pinch lately. Additionally, M&I was named as a co-defendant in a fraud and racketeering charge in Missouri on Friday, June 20, where trust funds allegedly were siphoned off from where they belonged in a Pre-Need Funeral Arrangemeent situation, as reported in the Kansas City Star. That can't be good for trust in the company by investors when they eventually find out about such things soon. The June Put on MI with $15.00 Strike Price looks good.


MI:  This call was made on 06/23/08 @ $17.0
Rating:   Negative   $17.0 (06/23/08)
Gain/Loss:   +24.47% in 198 days


Comments (2)

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azfinfan   N/A     0 point   commented 188 days ago reply

I think you have the wrong bank, MI is M&I Marshall & Ilsley, and you are referring to MI Bank & Trust. Get your facts straight before posting potentially harmful and erroneous information.

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meltdown   N/A     1 point   commented 185 days ago reply

To Clarify, MI is the Ticker Symbol of Marshall & Ilsley Corp., a company that is in the bank and "trust" business. I sincerely apologize for any confusion; especially if the other company you referred to is not part of their "group". The article that I placed the Comment under clearly showed the company name and ticker symbol of MI STOCK. I stand by my comment about Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI), which is apparently headed in the direction of the toilet if not down the tubes altogether. They have leveraged themselves into some extreme risks, including but not limited to the SUB-PRIME LOAN DEBACLE, in which, MI is a LOSS LEADER. Good luck if you own or are holding MI STOCK in hopes of it bouncing upward anytime soon. If OIL prices hold or surge higher upward, which seems very likely, then their rosy Q3 projections in their most recent disclosure are as one particular prominent banker may have called "irrational exuberance", to say the least, and possibly even foolish. In my highly researched informed (unprofessional) opinion of this bank and "trust" company, I frankly don't even see much of a future for them if OIL PRICES don't turn sharply downward immediately, and if they don't start thinking more about serious risks before they continue trying to sit pat upon their prior mistakes, many of which are extremely apparent now. I believe that more major potentially catastrophic mistakes will be disclosed and reported upon in the not-so-distant future, which may seriously bring into question the very credibility of this bank & "trust" company (NYSE: MI) in an industry in which trust is critically important to maintain. Before, I referred to the short-term (July) $15.00 MI PUT, which is clearly and solidly "in the money" right now. Now, I like the very short-term (September and even July) $10.00 MI PUT, as I believe that the MI Stock Rollercoaster has enormous downward spiral potential in even THE NEXT 10 DAYS... Time will tell. In any case, if you own MI Stock and especially if you have been a long-term stock-HOLDER, then I really feel sorry for you and I offer my condolences, as they have fallen from about $50.00 when I first predicted the DownFall A Year Ago, although I had no money at that time thanks to another "trust" company that they apparently had a very strong mutual "urge to merge" with, despite serious documented warnings to reconsider based upon extensively documeted evidences of serious problems, to say the least. I predict A Very Early HALLOWEEN for MI Stock again in 08. The TRUTH in Proper Disclosure can sometimes be suppressed for a while... BUT THE TRUTH has a strange way of surfacing eventually, even when Multi-Billion $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ "trust" companies may prefer to suppress certain "things" indefinately if at all possible, by whatever means necessary. Once again, I am extremely Bear-Sternish on MI in the immediate and long term outlooks, for very good reasons, as more dismal news for MI seem likely. If you an unfortunate MI stockHOLDER waiting for a bounce... Good Luck.


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