SocialPicks Monitor new  |    Stock Idea Community
SocialPicks
   Sign Up   |   Log In   |   What is SocialPicks?     
Good Investment Ideas By People You Trust
SocialPicks is a community where stock investors exchange ideas and track performance of financial bloggers.
Top_member_photos
Get free stock picks and email alerts daily
 
Are you a stock guru?

3 pts

Opinion on  Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM)     Sector: Consumer/Non-Cyclical  >  Industry: Food Processing
Berkie

Jun 14, 2008 05:54 PM UTC
Return Risk
-21.21% HIGH
Analyst

Check these numbers:
ADM has 613 million gallons ethanol procuction, added Decator, Peoria,
Columbus, Wallahalla, and Marshall plant production. At a spot price
of $2.7 X 613= $1.6 billion in ethanol sales. 2008 total sales are
about 60 Billion. That is 1.6/60=2.7% of sales. Cedar Rapids and
Clinton plants not operational yet (550mg).
POET is the largest US producer and they are loosing very little on
the current ( my view temporary situation)
Worst case at one of their plants loosing .08/g. POET says that Citi
analyst David Driscoll's comment that the flooding would affect 2-5
billion gallons was an "exaggeration"
3 Times in the conference call with ADM and the analysts, ADM
mentioned Brazil Sugar for ethanol when conditions were favorable. I
bet they switch to sugar temporarly to keep making profit.
ADM's Biodiesel should not be affected and mosrt of it is in overseas.
The ConocoPhillips deal concerning cellululostic ethanol and
cellululostic crude should not soon start to bear fruit next year.
This has nothing to do with corn, well maybe the barren cobs.
Ethanol industry has to much capacity by 40%, and the flooding if cut
capacity by 500 million gal would put the demand/supply in
equllibrium, according to POET.
ADM is a fabulous company and was the stock of the year by the Motel
Fool people.
It is a screeming buy at these prices.
 


ADM:  This call was made on 06/14/08 @ $32.43
Rating:   Positive   $32.43 (06/14/08)
Gain/Loss:   -19.15% in 171 days


Add Comment

Be the first to comment on this story and earn 2 points.

Your Comment



ROCK-STAR INVESTORS
Rank Name Sharpe Ratio Avg Return Followers
1 noshoes 22.30 +48.71% 175
2 Gerald Greene 20.02 +46.30% 57
3 krprasad 17.43 +18.91% 7
4 The Big Bear 16.71 +44.07% 211
5 David Young 14.41 +14.95% 7


POPULAR STOCKS
Symbol Company Name Sentiment
T AT&T Inc
GLD streetTRACKS Gold
AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc
SBUX Starbucks Corp
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc The
JNJ Johnson & Johnson

TODAY'S HEADLINES

TODAY'S TOP PICKS

 
Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM)
   SocialPicks Sentiment:   

   This Quarter's Sentiment:
All:
84.0%
Top:
37.5%




Latest Picks by drawho42
Symbol SP Sentiment Rating Return Since

View All >
   




IN THE PRESS
Press_forbes Press_washingtonpost Press_wsj Press_npr Press_techcrunch