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6 pts

Opinion on  Firstfed Financial Corp. (FED)     Sector: Financial  >  Industry: S&Ls/Savings Banks
FirstFed - a business model in wind-up mode

Jun 11, 2008 08:11 AM UTC
Return Risk
+40.43% HIGH
Analyst

FirstFed is a business model in serious trouble. Its loan origination volume has decreased significantly over the last 9 months and will sone be non-existent. This is caused by the weak real estate market in California and borrowers preference for fixed rate loans which FirstFed is unable to provide. This is clearly illustrated by the shrinkage in Total Assets since June 30, 2006 .
FirstFed is unique among mortgage lenders in that 95% of its loan portfolio is in Non-Traditional Mortgage Product Risks (under the 'Interagency Guidance'), which applies to adjustable rate and interest- only loans. Non-Traditional products are generally defined in the Guidance as loans that allow for interest-only payments or have the potential for negative amortization.  Under the Guidance these types of loans are considered higher risk and credit assessment should be more thorough than FirstFed has been undertaking to date.
This is of concern as the portfolio has over 95 % invested in adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) AND substantially all adjustable single family loans in the Bank's loan portfolio allow for negative amortization when a scheduled monthly payment is not sufficient to pay the monthly interest accruing on the loan. Negative amortization, which results when interest earned by the Bank is added to borrowers' loan balances. This means borrowers who are unable or unwilling to pay can avoid paying interest and have their shortfall added to their mortgage principal.  Negative amortization as a percentage of all single family loans in the Bank's loan portfolio is now well above 6% and one can expect this to accelerate.  This decreases the quality of the loan portfolio and puts pressure on the bank's funding position.
A big challenge for FirstFed is its single family loan portfolio of which $610m are No Income/No Asset loans and a whopping $1,770m are Stated Income/Stated Asset (but unverified).  On the slightly positive side, the portfolio has a reasonable LTV with only $441m with an LTV above 80% and $514m with an FICO score below 660 (of which only $31m are subprime).
Non-performing assets as a percentage of total assets increased significantly since December 31, 2006 and to date, FED 's non-performing assets are primarily the result of defaults on single family loans.   The Bank defines non-performing assets as loans delinquent over 90 days (non- accrual loans), loans in foreclosure and real estate acquired by foreclosure (real estate owned). NOTE that this does not include any lenders who cannot pay and take advantage of the negative amortization, if a portion of this was actually loans in default then it would be of concern.
Medium term, expect the Bank to continue to shrink with negative amortizing inexorably increasing - resulting in a much lower quality portfolio and increasing cash squeeze as interest on the negative amortizing ARMs is increasingly not paid.  
Under this scenario the Bank is sitting on a slow-fuse time-bomb and it is only a matter of time until equity dwindles away the Bank becomes worthless.


FED:  This call was made on 06/11/08 @ $12.21
Rating:   Negative   $12.21 (06/11/08)
Gain/Loss:   +61.02% in 161 days
Target:   $5.00 (-59.05%) in Three months


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ferrit previously rated FED
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