Allstate has BV equity of around $22bn vs a higher market cap of around $28bn.
This equity is geared to support $159bn of assets of which $121bn are investments and excluding short term assets, investments total around $115bn.
Although Allstate had a conservative investment portfolio recent events plus the recent downgrade of the monolines means significant writedowns in investment values can be expected. Below is tabled the writedowns forecast assuming a number of the AAA wrapped munis are downgraded, corporates are downgraded to reflect the increasing defaults (back to the historical mean), ABS,CMBS and RMBS reflect current conditions plus the impact of monoline downgrades and global equities experience a drop in value.
FaveValue
Writedowns
U.S. govt and agencies
4,365
100%
0
Municipal
24,651
95%
1,233
Corporate
40,363
95%
2,018
ABS
9,597
60%
3,839
CMBS
8,317
70%
2,495
RMBS
6,960
50%
3,480
Foreign government
2,856
100%
0
Redeemable prefs
60
100%
0
Equities
7,811
85%
1,172
Home loans
10,473
80%
2,095
Investments
115,453
ProForma Writedowns
16,331
BV Equity
21,634
New BV Equity
5,303
Expect to see the share price drop to $35 over the next few months to reflect future writedowns.
I've had AllState since this posting, and have made a decent amount of money. However, I've decided to sell them off, as I don't like their current forecast!
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$50.19 (06/11/08)
