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6 pts

Opinion on  Corn Products International Inc (CPO)     Sector: Consumer/Non-Cyclical  >  Industry: Food Processing
CPO STRONG BUY

May 30, 2008 08:57 AM UTC
Foto
Return Risk
-27.45% HIGH
Principal

Fundamental Analysis  

Corn Products International, Inc. ( CPO ) reported first-quarter results on Apr 22 that easily beat Wall Street estimates by 19.72%.

Earnings per share increased by 29% year-over-year and revenues grew by 22% compared to 2007. The company upped its full-year forecast to $2.90 - $3.15 from $2.65- $2.85 per share versus 2007 earnings of $2.59 per share.

Full Analysis

Corn Products International is the largest producer of dextrose in the world and manufactures starches, high fructose corn syrups and glucose. The company, headquartered in Westchester, IL, provides a variety of ingredients to customers in 60 industries including food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, animal feed, corrugating, paper and textiles. CPO has 35 plants in 15 countries.

Corn Products,  has three business segments: North America, South America and Asia/Africa.

The company's North America segment includes Canada, Mexico and the United States. CPO is the only North American corn refiner with full-scale starch and sweetener facilities in all three NAFTA countries.

In South America, Corn Products is among the largest corn refiners with operations in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru and Uruguay.

The company processes corn and tapioca in Asia/Africa with operations in China, Kenya, Pakistan, South Korea and Thailand. It also has licensing agreements in South Africa.

Corn Products Reports Record Sales in the First Quarter

On Apr 22, for the ninth consecutive quarter, the company reported record sales. Net sales were up 22% to $931 million, compared to $762 million in the first-quarter of 2007. The company attributed the growth to strong pricing actions, product mix improvement, and favorable currency translation.

The company is bullish about growth in 2008.

"We have raised our 2008 EPS guidance on the strength of our first quarter performance and the greater visibility we have on the rest of the year," said Sam Scott, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Corn Products International.

"We now expect a 12 to 22 percent increase in diluted EPS in 2008, or $2.90 to $3.15, versus $2.59 in 2007, which included a 5-cent gain from our Company’s holdings in CME Group Inc. Our prior 2008 EPS guidance was $2.65 to $2.85. We also now believe that net sales in 2008 should reach $4 billion," he said.

Consensus Estimates Move Higher

In the last 60 days, consensus estimates for the second quarter are up 14%. Analysts estimate earnings growth in the second quarter at 25.5% year-over-year. For the year, analysts project 19.5% earnings growth. CPO has averaged a 8.39% surprise over the last four quarters.

 Analysts' Targets
 Deutsche Bank Securities $48 
    Neutral
    Wednesday, April 23, 2008

 BMO Capital Markets $51 
    Outperform
    Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Analysts'
 Recommendation:
Buy  
    30 Days Ago: Buy  

  Analysts' Target: $50  

 
Corn Products International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food ingredients and industrial products derived from wet milling and processing of corn and other starch-based materials in North and South America, Asia, and Africa. The company provides sweetener products, such as fructose corn syrup, glucose corn syrups, maltose corn syrups, caramel color, dextrose, polyols, maltodextrins, and glucose and corn syrup solids; and starch-based products comprising industrial and food-grade starches. It serves a range of customers in the food and beverage, pharmaceutical, paper products, corrugated, laminated paper, textile, and brewing industries, as well as the animal feed and corn oil markets. The company also offers refined corn oil, salad dressings, shortening, mayonnaise, corn gluten feed and meal, and steep water. It markets its products directly to manufacturers and distributors. Corn Products International, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Westchester, Illinois. Corn Products International Inc. (NYSE:CPO) operates independently of Unilever Bestfoods as of December 31, 1997.

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Analyst Firms Making Recommendations
BB&T CAPITAL MARKETS
BMO CAPITAL MARKETS-US
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DAVENPORT & COMPANY LLC
DEUTSCHE BANK NORTH AMERICA
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MORGAN STANLEY

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CPO Market Data

Currency US Dollars
Share Price $47.25  
Change Today $0.00
52 Week High $49.12
52 Week Low $32.43
Volume 347,797
Beta 0.50
RiskGrade 162
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What The Brokers Say

Strong Buy 3
Buy 2
Neutral 3
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0
Total 8

Trades for 29-May-2008

Time Volume / Share Price
16:12 25,676 @ $47.25
16:05 700 @ $47.25
16:05 13,500 @ $47.25
15:57 300 @ $47.18
15:55 100 @ $47.22

Latest Trades

Time Price Volume Value Buy/Sell
29-May-2008 $47.25 25,676 $1,213,191 Unknown
29-May-2008 $47.25 700 $33,075 Unknown
29-May-2008 $47.25 13,500 $637,875 Unknown
29-May-2008 $47.18 300 $14,154 Unknown
29-May-2008 $47.22 100 $4,722 Unknown

Latest Trades

Time Price Volume Value Buy/Sell
29-May-2008 $47.25 25,676 $1,213,191 Unknown
29-May-2008 $47.25 700 $33,075 Unknown
29-May-2008 $47.25 13,500 $637,875 Unknown
29-May-2008 $47.18 300 $14,154 Unknown
29-May-2008 $47.22 100 $4,722 Unknown
<th valign="top" width="50%"> Consensus Recommendation </th> <th valign="top" width="50%"> Detailed Analyst Recommendation </th> <th valign="top"> 12 Month Price Target Range </th> <th valign="top"> Earnings Surprise </th> <th valign="top" colspan="3"> Momentum (4 Weeks)  Quarter End & Fiscal </th> <th valign="top" colspan="3"> Detailed Estimates Submitted </th> <!-- begin code for popup --> <th width="50%"> Earnings Growth (12/2008) </th> <th width="50%"> Price/Earnings (12/2008)    EPS Summary </th> <th width="50%"> Consensus Earnings Forecasts </th> <th width="50%"> PEG Ratio </th>
 
  View list of
Analyst Firms
Each recommendation received from contributors is mapped to one of the I/B/E/S standard ratings. A consensus recommendation is determined by an average of the numeric values, rounding that mean value to the nearest integer. This area currently displays US research coverage only. In many cases, non-US related research coverage can be accessed from the homepage of the respective company.
 
 
  48
Consensus          
  50        
         
54
   
 
47.25
Previous Close
   
Price targets are calculated by estimating future earnings per share and then applying a price-to-earnings multiple, known as the P/E ratio.
 
<!--br--> 0.85
<!--br--> 0.64
<!--br--> 0.43
<!--br--> 0.22












 
<!--br-->                        
  Dec06 Mar07 Jun07 Sep07 Dec07 Mar08

 Estimate    Reported Earning
View earnings surprise data table for more information.
 
 12/2008  1 of 8 estimates changed
 
  Up:
1
   
Down: 0    
 
 12/2008 EPS Mean % change
1.106%
 3.075      1 Month Ago
 3.109      Current
 
Estimate momentum measures changes in analyst sentiment over time and may be an indicator of future price movements.
 

          Graph Key
 
 
CPO 22.39%
Industry* 6.19%
*FOOD PROCESSORS
Earnings Growth is the measure of year on year earnings per share (EPS) growth from the prior fiscal year, expressed as a percentage. View Forecast Earnings Growth .
 
CPO 15.2
Industry*  17.33

*FOOD PROCESSORS
Price/Earnings ratio is a widely used stock evaluation measure. View P/E data for the next four years for this security.
 
 
 
 
2.54

3.11/8

3.48/7

 
  2007A 2008 2009

The actual reported earnings per share for 12/2007 for CPO was 2.54. For the fiscal year 12/2008, the consensus mean EPS is 3.11, derived from a total of 8 estimates.
View annual and quarterly consensus data .
 
The PEG ratio is the Price Earnings ratio divided by the growth rate. In this case we use the forecasted earnings over the next 12 months and the long term forecasted growth rate (based on the consensus of professional analysts.)


CPO:  This call was made on 05/30/08 @ $47.24
Rating:   Positive   $47.24 (05/30/08)
Closed:   06/06/2008 @ $47.6 (+0.76% in 7 days)
Target:   $54.00 (+14.31%) in One month
Allocation:   24.9% of portfolio


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