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7 pts

Opinion on  iPath Dow Jones AIG Livestock Total Return SubIndex ETN (COW)
Meat prices will go up in the coming months

May 07, 2008 09:50 PM GMT
India_flag_background
Return Risk
-5.58% MID
Sr. Associate

The Dow Jones–AIG Livestock Total Return Sub-Index Service Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones–AIG Commodity Index Service Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the Index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The Index is currently composed of two futures contracts on livestock commodities traded on U.S. exchanges.

holdings 60 % live cattle
                 40  % lean hogs

http://www.ipathetn.com/iPath-Dow-Jones-AIG-Livestock-Total-R...

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/04/29/cow-resources-expert...

Trader Mark and Steve Halpern had spotted this much earlier.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/73827-taking-ipath-dj-livesto...

The comments by sbernard in this seeking alpha article is very informative
I've been long COW for about 10 days. There are two other livestock-related ETFs now that are very similar: LSO (by Elements ETNs) and UBC (marketed by the European Investment Banking giant UBS). LSO has an expense ratio that is half of UBC, and they are both lower than the expense ratio of COW.
As a trader, I buy and sell these ETFs/ETNs only as long as they continue to rise, so the bid/ask spread is more of a consideration to be than the expense ratio. However, I consider them both before choosing one or the other. At the time of this posting, COW and UBC have spreads of 4 cents, while LSO has a spread of 6 cents.
The two ETNs I've mentioned here are both very new, started within the past couple of weeks. As a trader, I buy and sell based upon the charts, so I won't trade either of the new ones until they have been around for at least two months, so they can establish chart patterns.
Each ETN also has a different composition of cattle vs. hogs, also. Cow is also the most liquid. All the factors must be taken into account, I believe, in making an investment.

http://www.socialpicks.com/stock/COW

Commodities prices follow supply and demand.Here with increased culling we are seeing a reduction in supply in the face of normal or increasing demand.So I expect meat prices to go up.It was the same thought process that made me buy Tyson foods but the stock is still down.Here the advantage is that there is no balance sheet to look at,no management to assess etc.So therefore I personally think COW is a better way to catch the action than Tyson foods.


COW:  This call was made on 05/07/08 @ $43.5
Rating:   Positive   $43.5 (05/07/08)
Gain/Loss:   -36.14% in 1481 days
Allocation:   0.3% of portfolio


Comments (20)

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abates   N/A     3 points   commented 1480 days ago reply

It is all a chain, higher input prices to raise the cattle will translate into higher cattle prices it seems as though it was only a matter of time
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Toby Lopez    9 %     3 points   commented 1480 days ago reply

Thank you for your comment.It certainly seems that the price increases will be passed on to the customer soon.

An article I came across today might also interest you-basically the point of interest is that emerging market consumption of meat is rising.Couple this with the decision of South Korea to import beef from America and the falling dollar making exports attractive,one can hope for increased exports of meat as well.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Now_EU_says_increased_meat_consumption_in_India_driving_food_prices_/articleshow/3016503.cms
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Toby Lopez    9 %     1 point   commented 1437 days ago reply

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB_NZZzMI740&refer=home

The prices are moving up.
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texan1950   N/A     0 point   commented 1418 days ago reply

Ranchers are slaughtering their livestock because of rising feed and other costs. Meat prices may decline for a short period as meat floods the retail market, then rise drastically with the resulting shortage.
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