Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
Continuing with my practice of 'transparency' I wanted to let you all know that I chose to purchase 180 shares of Universal Electronics (UEIC) a few moments ago in my Trading Account. These shares were bought at a price of $25.18. That nickel didn't last long in my pocket, did it?
I believe it fits my investment criteria, was on the list of top % gainers today, and I had a 'permission slip' to buy something....so there it was!
Anyhow, if you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog. I shall try to write up a more complete evaluation of this particular company later today or this weekend. Please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com for any other comments or questions....leave your name and location with the email so I can respond on the blog if possible!
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
As I promised yesterday, let's take a closer look at Universal Electronics (UEIC) that I added to my own trading portfolio after my partial sale of Bolt (BTJ). UEIC closed at $27.89, up $5.35 or 23.74% on the day. This stock easily made the list of top % gainers on the NASDAQ. As I just indicated, this particular stock is a stock that I now am an owner of, so please take that into consideration as well.
"...provides preprogrammed wireless control products and audio-video accessories for home entertainment systems, as well as software designed to enable consumers to wirelessly connect, control, and interact with a home environment. The company's family of preprogrammed wireless control products includes touch screen remote controls, wireless keyboards, game controllers, antennas, and various audio/video accessories, as well as custom and customizable microcontrollers that include its library of infrared remote (IR) codes, proprietary software, and digital media control software."
How did they do in the latest quarter?
It was the announcement of 4th quarter 2006 earnings and 2007 guidance after the close of trading Thursday that drove the stock higher Friday. Net sales for the quarter came in at $69.7 million, an increase of $20.4 million or 41.4% over sales of $49.3 million in the same period in 2005. Net income for the quarter was $5.4 million or $.37/share, compared to $3.5 million or $.25/diluted share, approximately a 50% increase year over year.
This $.37/share exceeded expectations of $.32/share according to analysts following the stock. The company also raised guidance for 2007 to earnings of $1.13 to $1.23/share. This was ahead of 'Wall Street estimates' of $1.09/share. From my own perspective, the combination of strong revenue increases with earnings growth which exceed expectations and having the company raise guidance in the same announcement is often associated with a price increase in equities.
How about longer-term financial results?
Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on UEIC, we can see that except for a dip in revenue between 2001 and 2002 when revenue dropped from $119 million to $104 million, the company has been steadily increasing revenue up to $181 million in 2005 and $202 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).
Earnings which also dipped from $.78/share in 2001 to $.42/share in 2002, have subsequently steadily increased to $.69/share in 2005 and $.77/share in the TTM. No dividends are paid and the outstanding shares have remained steady at 14 million in 2001 and 14 million in the TTM.
Free cash flow, which dropped from $17 million in 2003 to $1 million in 2004, increased to $11 million in 2005 and $14 million in the TTM.
The balance sheet, as presented on Morningstar, appears very solid with $58.8 million in cash, which alone can easily cover both the $47.0 million in current liabilities and the negligible $100,000 in long-term liabilities. Calculating the current ratio, we get a total of $137.4 million in total current assets which when compared to the $47.0 million in current liabilities yields a current ratio of 2.92. Generally ratios over 1.25 are considered 'healthy'.
How about some valuation numbers?
Checking the Yahoo "Key Statistics" on Universal Electronics, we can see that this is a small cap stock with a market capitalization of only $390.49 million. The trailing p/e is a moderate 34.22, with a forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-07) estimated at 25.82. With the rapid growth, the PEG ratio (5 yr expected) is estimated at 1.24. This is well within my 1.0 to 1.5 range that I view as a reasonable PEG.
According to the Fidelity.com eresearch website, UEIC has a Price/Sales (TTM) ratio of 1.63 with an industry average of 1.22. The company also has a return on equity (TTM) of 11.14% close to the industry average of 11.65%. At least by both of these valuations, we find that the company is selling at a slight premium to its peers in the same industrial group.
Finishing up with Yahoo, we see that there are 14 million shares outstanding with only 13.86 million that float. Of these shares that float, there were 428,400 shares out short as of 1/9/07. This represents 11.4 trading days of volume (short ratio) due to the low average volume of 65,686 shares. This significant short interest may well have 'squeezed' the short-sellers yesterday causing the sharp price increase as short-sellers, I suspect, were scrambling to exit their positions by buying back shares that they had previously sold to close out their speculation on a price drop.
As I noted, no dividends are reported on Yahoo, and the last stock split reported was a 2:1 split in February, 2000.
What does the chart look like?
Taking a look at the "Point and Figure" Chart on Universal Electronics, actually for the first time as I write this up, I am struck by what appears to be a classical William O'Neil "Cup and Handle" configuration.
Now I am not a technician, and I don't put a huge amount of weight into stock price patterns, but I remember reading about cups and handles when reading How to Make Money in Stocks...and even this is a Point and Figure Chart, this certainly has that characteristic, of a dip, a long period of consolidation, then a break-out on the upside.
In any case, whether the stock is truly a "cup and handle" or not, the chart appears encouraging because the stock is just now moving higher after a long period of moving sideways. It certainly doesn't appear over-extended.
Summary: What do I think?
To summarize, I liked this stock enough to buy some shares :). The stock moved strongly higher yesterday, likely as shorts were squeezed. They announced great earnings results, exceeded estimates, and raised guidance. The Morningstar.com looks nice with several years of revenue and earnings growth without increasing the stock float. Free cash appears positive and growing, and the balance sheet is solid. Valuation-wise the p/e is a tad rich but the PEG suggests reasonable valuation. The Price/Sales and the ROE are a bit under their peers but with the strong growth, a premium might well be worth it. Finally, the chart looks solid.
I had that nickel in my pocket for about 15 minutes, lol, and I spent it. Now I got myself a remote control stock :). Hope it works out great!
Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! As always, if you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. If you get a chance, feel free to visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website where I discuss some of the many stocks I write about here on the blog.
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
One of my weekend 'tasks' that I have given myself is to review one of my holdings in my Trading Account every other weekend. Two weeks ago I reviewed my holding in Starbucks (SBUX). I am now up to my full complement of 20 positions in my account (I have decided to top out at 20 instead of 25 to allow my margin balance to begin being paid off...hopefully!). Thus it should take me about 40 weeks to completely go through the list...and figuring on an occasional missed week, then about a year for the cycle. I am going alphabetically by symbol and am now up to Universal Electronics (UEIC)
I currently own 180 shares of Universal Electronics with a cost basis of $25.24 that were acquired February 23, 2007, just a couple of months ago. UEIC closed at $28.33 on April 20, 2007, for an unrealized gain of $3.09 or 12.2% since my purchase. When am I planning to sell? On the downside, if the stock should decline to an 8% loss or .92 x $25.24 = $23.22, then I shall be selling all of my shares. On the upside, I shall plan on selling 1/7th of my holding or 180/7 = 25 shares, if the stock should reach a 30% appreciation target, my first targeted sale, or 1.3 x $25.24 = $32.81. Thus far, in the past two months, I have not sold any shares of this holding.
Let's take a closer look at this company and see if it still deserves a spot in my portfolio and whether it belongs in my blog!
"...provides pre-programmed wireless control products and audio-video accessories for home entertainment systems. Its products include standard and touch screen remote controls; antennas; and various audio/video accessories, including digital antennas, signal boosters, television brackets, and audio and video cleaning products, as well as microcontrollers."
How did they do in the latest quarter?
On February 22, 2007, UEIC reported 4th quarter results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, net sales were $69.7 million, up nicely from $49.3 million in the same period the prior year. Net income for the 2006 fourth quarter was $5.4 million, or $.37/diluted share, up 50% from last year's $3.5 million or $.25/diluted share.
This result beat expectations of analysts from Thomson Financial that were expecting earnings of $.32/share. The company also raised guidance in the same report, boosting 2007 earnings estimate to $1.13 to $1.23/share, with sales between $260 and $271 million. Apparently current expectations are at $1.09/share. The combination of strong earnings results, beating expectations, and raising guidance was the source of my original interest in purchasing shares of this company.
How about longer-term financial results?
Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials, we can see that revenue, which dipped from $119 million in 2001 to $104 million in 2002, has subsequently climbed steadily to $181 million in 2005 and $215 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).
Earnings follow a similar pattern, dipping from $.78/share in 2001 to $.42/share in 2002, however, they have climbed steadily since to $.69/share in 2005 and $.81 in the TTM. Also attractive is the stability in the outstanding shares with 14 million recorded in 2001, unchanged at 14 million in the TTM.
Free cash flow has been positive but erratic with $17 million reported in 2003, $1 million in 2004, $11 million in 2005 and $9 million in the TTM.
The balance sheet is solid with $57.3 million in cash, which by itself can easily cover both the $49.4 million in current liabilities and the small $100,000 in long-term debt. Calculating the current ratio, the combined current assets total $143.6 million, which, when divided by the $49.4 million in current liabilities yields a healthy ratio of 2.91. This ratio is particularly noteworth because of the virtual absence of any long-term liabilities as reported by Morningstar.com.
What about some valuation numbers?
Looking at the Yahoo "Key Statistics" on UEIC we can see that this is a small cap stock with a market capitalization of only $404.44 million. The trailing p/e is a bit rich at 30.23 but the forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-08) is estimated at a more reasonable 19.95. Thus, with rapid growth, the PEG ratio (5 yr expected) is 1.16. I like PEG's that are between 1.0 and 1.5 as being 'reasonably priced'. UEIC fits the bill!
Another aspect of valuation is Price/Sales. I always like to credit Paul Sturm from Smart Money who wrote a great article on using the Price/Sales ratio by comparing it to other companies in the same type business. In this case, Universal Electronics is reported to have a Price/Sales ratio of 1.66 which is actually higher than the industry average of 1.17, meaning the stock is priced at a premium to similar companies in the same industry.
Looking at Return on Equity as a measure of profitability, UEIC comes in close to the average at 11.14%, with an average ROE (TTM) in its industry recorded at 11.29% by Fidelity.
Finishing up with Yahoo, we can see that there are 14.28 million shares outstanding and 14.13 million that float. There are 688,580 shares out short as of 3/12/07, representing 3.4 trading days of volume (the short ratio). I use a 3 day cut-off for 'significance' in this ratio. So this is borderline significant...with more shares out short being a bullish factor.
No dividends are reported and the last stock split per Yahoo was a 2:1 split in February, 2000.
What does the chart look like?
Examining the "Point & Figure" chart on UEIC from StockCharts.com, we can see what appears to me to be a "cup and handle" chart pattern, which usually is recorded in a 'bar chart'. In any case, the stock which has been consolidating for almost three years between the $15 and $18 level, appears now to have clearly broken-out to the $29 level. The chart looks encouraging to me.
Summary: What do I think about this stock?
I still like this stock and still rate it a "buy". I do own shares now so that should be taken into consideration. However, the latest quarter was very strong, with both earnings and revenue growth and the company exceeding expectations on earnings. In addition, they raised guidance on future revenue. The Morningstar.com report looks solid with steady revenue and earnings growth the past several years, maintenance of a steady number of shares outstanding, free cash flow generation, and a solid balance sheet.
Valuation-wise, the PEG is below 1.5, but the Price/Sales is a bit rich relative to similar companies, and the ROE is fairly average. Finally, the chart looks encouraging.
Thanks again for visiting my blog. If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them right on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website where I discuss some of the stocks that I have written about here on the blog.
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
A few moments ago I noticed that my Universal Electronics Stock (UEIC) had passed my first appreciation target of a 30% gain. At each of these appreciation targets, my current strategy is to sell 1/7th of my holding. Owning 180 shares, I sold 25 shares of UEIC at $33.39. These shares were purchased 2/23/07 at a cost basis of $25.24, so this represented a gain of $8.15 or 32.3% since purchase.
My next sale on the upside would be at an appreciation target of 60% at which time I plan on selling 1/7th of my remaining shares, or 22 shares at 1.6 x $25.24 = $40.38. On the downside, after a single sale, my targeted sale point would be at break-even or at a price of $25.24.
Anyhow, the other thing about my strategy is that now at 19 positions, under my new maximum of 20 positions, this sale is a 'signal' or a 'permission slip' to look for a new holding! That nickel is already burning a hole in my pocket!
Thanks so much for dropping by! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. I shall be on the lookout for that new position and I shall keep you posted!
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
As I like to do from time to time on this blog, I would like to share with you the current status of my Trading Portfolio. I last wrote up my "trading portfolio update" on June 7, 2007, a month ago. There have been a few changes since then. But the biggest development has been my partipation in Covestor. You now can check my Covestor page and see the daily changes, all trades, and my performance relative to the indices and other registered investors. Thus far, I have been doing quite well as it has been a fortunate month for me especially with he Ventana bid by Roche. I am always grateful when my portfolio and my investing strategy is woking; but I am aware that there will be times when nothing seems to work. Sometimes the most successful approach is about persistence and patience.
This past month also found me shaken-out of Gildan Activewear, which seemed to almost know I had sold on a dip and gleefully turned around to move higher making the top % gainers list that same day! O.K. that's a bit too anthropomorphic, but still, don't you just hate those days sometimes :).
So I am back to 19 positions. Let's take a look at them and I will share with you in order: the symbol, number of shares, date of purchase, price of purchase, latest price (7/6/07), and percentage gain (or loss).
Baldor Electric Co. (BEZ), 140 shares, 5/22/07, $47.19, $50.04, 6.04%.
Meridian Bioscience (VIVO), 270 shares, 4/21/05, $7.42, $22.00, 196.54%
Wolverine World Wide (WWW), 200 shares, 4/19/06, $23.55, $28.51, 21.08%
Since my last review on June 7, 2007, I sold 23 shares of Ventana at $76.83, and the rest of the 139 shares of Ventana (VMSI) at $76.502 later the same day on 6/26/07. On that day I purchased 350 shares of MEDTOX at $28.5534, Bolt hit another appreciation target and I sold 1/7th of my holding (21 shares) at $50.52. Finally, on 7/5/07, I sold my 210 shares of Gildan at $33.1101 when it hit an (8)% loss after purchase.
Currently I am at 19 positions. My equity value is $119,962.09, my margin balance is at $56,031.51, giving me a 53.29% margin equity percentage. As of 7/6/07, I have $33,571.01 in unrealized gains in my account, and with the above trades have taken $3,100.15 in net short-term gains, and $17,824.18 in net long-term gains for a total of $20,924.33 in realized gains for 2007. I also have paid $2,563.07 in margin interest and have received a total of $272.58 in ordinary dividends and distributions and miscellaneous income.
Please let me know if you have any comments or questions regarding my Trading Account. Please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Covestor page, where you can see a third-party analysis of my holdings and performance.
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As I promised yesterday, let's take a closer look at Universal Electronics (UEIC) that I added to my own trading portfolio after my partial sale of Bolt (BTJ). UEIC closed at $27.89, up $5.35 or 23.74% on the day. This stock easily made the 
How did they do in the latest quarter?
$27.9 (02/24/07)
