Car makers are used to not having to earn their money. They'd make cars and people would buy them. If there were too many bugs they'd issue a recall. The big three sat idle for 30 years while being gradually and inevitably overtaken by competitors like Toyota who ran their operations like a business.
This isn't an ambush situation. The big three committed themselves to losing market share when I was a kid and haven't done anything to turn it around.
Ford isn't in as rough shape as GM or Chrysler but they aren't doing well either. Whether they can change as fast as they need to change is an open question. IBM found the right leader in the 90's and was able to avoid extinction after a similar show of Hubris but that requires the right person at the helm with a strong agenda who is prepared to clean house in top management.
IBM still took years to get back on track with the right man at the helm. None of the big three, including Ford, have the luxury of that kind of a timeline.
IBM also wasn't put to its decision by an economic depression, not the best time to have to resolve deep systemic problems.
If Ford can pull off the same reform as IBM it would probably be the #1 auto maker in the world in ten years. There is no basis at this time for thinking that this could happen.
I'd see any long move with Ford to be a tactical gamble based on the assumption that analysts that don't look at fundamentals will consider it oversold. If you do it and win, cash out your win and run.
I don't see Ford as a long term strategic bet unless we see some kind of sweeping reform.
The economic problems are going to be here for at least five years. Can Ford make it?
