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2 points   posted on 12/14/08
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84%
+26.03%
 risk: conservative

85% is good enough


I've put in closing orders for most of my big wins on this site because of the recent lull in the bear market and the determination of the White House to bail out the automakers.

Bad news hasn't been pushing stocks down much in the past couple of weeks.

If there is further market recovery with the current touchy-feely nonsense about the markets turning around, that tends to have a greater effect on the stocks that have taken the biggest beating.

Expecting to do better than 85 or 90% on short sales, like I had on a number of positions, is pushing it. Anyways, for purposes of this site at least, if something that has lost 90% loses another 3 %, that winds up being 30% if I re-enter at the lower level.

Politicians are now mucking around and it is hard to say what will happen with that. I think it's time to close out the biggest winners on the short side, with a view to re-entering if the situation clears up.

Some political interference is necessary but there is no way to calculate what the effect will be, including on market psychology. No need to risk big winners on an indeterminate outcome.

Remember that, unless in an ultra-short etf, the best outcome on the short side is 100%. Don't get greedy.

  Related to:  
INDU Dow Jones Industrial Average
COMP NASDAQ Composite Index
SPX S&P 500


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scmfinance   79%     1 point   commented 355 days ago reply

90% isn't bad at all, so well done. From a trading perspective, I don't mind the interference that much. It's fairly easy to play the news in my opinion. In fact, the market seemed to lag with the auto bailout.


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