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1 point   posted on 09/29/08
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Newsmonkey
71%
-19.52%
 risk: conservative

If it has leverage....Sell it


The melt down seems to have begun. The Commercial paper market has totally frozen up. The freezing of the CP market has major ramifications. Only the biggest and best rated companies borrow money through CP. There is over 770 billion $ that matures between today and October 24th. Gulp! If the likes of GE cannot get financing how will lesser companies? I think it is not unlikely that you could see companies as strong as GE fail within the next 60 days if there is no relief.

  Related to:  
GE General Electric Company
WB Wachovia Corp
MS Morgan Stanley
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc The
C Citigroup Inc
GM General Motors Corp
F Ford Motor Company
UBS UBS AG
BAC Bank of America Corp


Comments (11)

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Gekko
Walter Thatcher   74%     1 point   commented 410 days ago reply

I agree that you should sell businesses that need financing, but what do you buy? MSFT? Tech hasn't exactly been a safe harbor either. PG? They sell stuff that everyone needs and that's getting punished.

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Newsmonkey
newsmonkey   71%     1 point   commented 409 days ago reply

If I were you the only thing I would "buy" are things like US Tbills, gold, or instruments that give you downside protection until you see the credit markets settle down. The damage that is being done to the economy every second there is doubt is massive. You will see retailers have horrible sales. How many friends do you have that have bought new cars in the last few weeks? Basically, everyone has stopped buying everything so you know this quarter is going to stink at a minimum, so why buy?

Unfortunately, the sad truth is that the economy isn't going to be solved in a day or two, this is going to drag out for a while.

I would look for a return of capital over a return on capital until you see how things settle out a bit. Until then, I would own US tbills, but definitely not municipal money markets or bond funds and the like. What use to be safe in the old days is not safe today so be very careful.

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Money
abates   N/A     1 point   commented 408 days ago reply

gold may not give you downside protection, it only has as much value as people are willing to give it

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Money
abates   N/A     1 point   commented 402 days ago reply

Also at GE's size they need a lot more funding than many smaller companies

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Kbe_4-14
nextfundmanager   N/A     1 point   commented 396 days ago reply

looks like people are waiting until the 27th when the fed CP program kicks in

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Kbe_4-14
nextfundmanager   N/A     1 point   commented 385 days ago reply

it is hard to tell though how far into the deleveraging process many of these institutions are

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loneranger   38%     1 point   commented 379 days ago reply

how much deleverage selling are people expecting to see at the end of the year

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traderdrew   51%     1 point   commented 379 days ago reply

looks like we made it through the CP you were talking about but there is plenty more on the horizon

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Newsmonkey
newsmonkey   71%     1 point   commented 371 days ago reply

A1-P1 paper is starting to thaw, however, a1/p2 and lower is still frozen. You see GE had to us the facility. If they couldn't borrow at a cheap rate how do you think the rest of the world is doing?

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Money
abates   N/A     1 point   commented 371 days ago reply

there have also been quite a few companies who have been cutting the duration on their cp as well

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allstarinvestor   85%     1 point   commented 370 days ago reply

we say A LOT of that today and there is probably more to come

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traderdrew   51%     1 point   commented 366 days ago reply

almost every company has some form of leverage


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