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posted on 09/29/08
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If it has leverage....Sell it
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The melt down seems to have begun. The Commercial paper market has totally frozen up. The freezing of the CP market has major ramifications. Only the biggest and best rated companies borrow money through CP. There is over 770 billion $ that matures between today and October 24th. Gulp! If the likes of GE cannot get financing how will lesser companies? I think it is not unlikely that you could see companies as strong as GE fail within the next 60 days if there is no relief.
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Comments (107)
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I agree that you should sell businesses that need financing, but what do you buy? MSFT? Tech hasn't exactly been a safe harbor either. PG? They sell stuff that everyone needs and that's getting punished.
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If I were you the only thing I would "buy" are things like US Tbills, gold, or instruments that give you downside protection until you see the credit markets settle down. The damage that is being done to the economy every second there is doubt is massive. You will see retailers have horrible sales. How many friends do you have that have bought new cars in the last few weeks? Basically, everyone has stopped buying everything so you know this quarter is going to stink at a minimum, so why buy?
Unfortunately, the sad truth is that the economy isn't going to be solved in a day or two, this is going to drag out for a while.
I would look for a return of capital over a return on capital until you see how things settle out a bit. Until then, I would own US tbills, but definitely not municipal money markets or bond funds and the like. What use to be safe in the old days is not safe today so be very careful.
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gold may not give you downside protection, it only has as much value as people are willing to give it
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Also at GE's size they need a lot more funding than many smaller companies
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looks like people are waiting until the 27th when the fed CP program kicks in
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it is hard to tell though how far into the deleveraging process many of these institutions are
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how much deleverage selling are people expecting to see at the end of the year
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looks like we made it through the CP you were talking about but there is plenty more on the horizon
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A1-P1 paper is starting to thaw, however, a1/p2 and lower is still frozen. You see GE had to us the facility. If they couldn't borrow at a cheap rate how do you think the rest of the world is doing?
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there have also been quite a few companies who have been cutting the duration on their cp as well
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we say A LOT of that today and there is probably more to come
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almost every company has some form of leverage
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Last week, news that the new season, Robinson will join NFL teams, change to play football, and will participate in some activities of the team's workout, the news is true? In addition, he will sign a number of overseas basketball club? This requires Robinson own answers. The only certainty is that by virtue of wearing a cheap jerseys Robinson extraordinary athleticism, he will then have several options.
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