-1 point
posted on 07/25/08
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-1.75%
risk: aggressive
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Why have i done so well? one word
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I agree, the title is a bit boastful, but i needed to grab your attention. over the past week, i have made over 20 picks, all destined to gain over 10%, with one poised to gain over 80% and another over 45%.
So what are my picks based on? and why am i so confident? because my method of investing is called merger investing. simply put, it is examining which companies have had agreements to be bought out at certain prices, offering a certain premium on the current price. In short, it is guaranteed money.
"but that cant be true in todays market, nothing is garunteed!" you are now thinking. well, you would be partially correct. Merger investing does involve risk, just much less than normal.
Anyone can pick a merger with a substantial payout and expect a big payday yet get screwed once the deal falls apart and the stock plummets in a selloff. but, if a merger is carefully analyzed, then that is easily avoided.
---My guide to Merger investing strategy----
As in all financial decisions, Merger investing requires a little research. when one sees a merger with alot of cash to be made, one has to analyze why the market hasnt corrected the price of the stock in question. Here is how we (individual investors) can approach our decisions:
STEP ONE: IDENTIFY and compare THE MERGER:
Take a look at the stock. identify it's price and possible premium. Also take a look at if there have been other mergers in the past 2-3 years in this same sector (this is optional, but can indicate a reason for the merger, and may provide clues as to how badly the merger is needed).
STEP TWO: ask and note the OBVIOUS:
ASK yourself why the stock still has a very large premium, and the market hasnt corrected the stock's price accordingly. certainly there would be demand for a 25% premium in 2 months?!
NOTE always this fact: this is a merger, and as such, is subject to the same predictable behavior as all other mergers and financial decisions. the stock, whose deal will close in [however long], does not have the demand right now because the market is waiting to see how things play out. That fact is constant in every merger, the most recent example being XMSR's merger with sirius, which only started to move on monday, when the deal is closing later this month. that is good news for us smaller investors. we have the flexibility to invest for two months and take our payout. the big players do not. they are active, they are patterned and they are compulsive.
STEP THREE: IDENTIFY specifics: What are the TERMS?:
One reason the stock may be at such a high premium and hasnt corrected is because the market doesnt believe the deal will take place as planned. Serius and XM radio faced significant legal and antitrust hurdles before their merger and as such, there was risk of the deal falling apart. Also look at if a company is raising significant amounts of debt to finance a stock buyout. in this economy, many more deals are starting to fall apart because company's cannot recieve the cash from banks to finance their planned mergers.
Also look at the terms of the deal. is it all cash, or is it part cash, part stock conversion? If it is the latter, than that means that the payout for every shareholder may fluctuate depening on how the stock of the buying company performs. Identify how the stock of the other company is performing. if it is constantly sinking, and the potential payout is decreasing consistently, then it may very well trigger a response from shareholders of the soon-to-be-bought company in the form of a vote against the merger.
STEP FOUR: WHO STANDS TO GAIN?!
one of the most useful signs to look at in a merger is the institutional ownership. If insiders and institutions are buying before a merger it is a solid indication that not only do the insiders and institutions believe in the deal, they believe in the company which will emerge as a result of the merger. For example; for CLF, the company buying ANR, in the last 3 months, there have been 42 insider trades, with 34 of those being purchases. in all, 4.25 million shares have been bought by insiders alone. A great indication.
Secondly, both companies have more than 90% institutional ownership, which makes the deal VERY likely if not guarunteed to go through. after all, it is these very people who have voiced approval, if not arranged for the deal to take place. this fact takes almost all of the risk off the table.
STEP 5: LAST BUT NOT LEAST: SIMPLE ANALYSIS:
Mergers are constantly analyzed. they have tons of information and articles relating to the sentiment of the market and shareholders towards a deal. this is easy information.
What also needs to be done is identify what advantages a merger offers. if there are almost no advantages, then the deal stands not nearly as much chance as a deal that offers advantages. for example; in the CLF-ANR merger:
The deal's terms are that every holder of ANR will recieve .95 shares of a CLF share, as well as 22.23 dollars in cash.
note the First part of that sentence. the .95 shares. that is one reason that the price will not move significantly higher until closer to the deal. the market wants to see where CLF will end up. but We do not have to do that. if we look at CLF as a company, we can see that they have recently been on a buying spree, merging with numerous companies, and experiencing incredible growth. not only is this a good business strategy, but this is great for long term growth.
CLF is a mining company. a producer of Iron Ore and Owner of many Coal Mines. this is not only considered an in-demand commodity, it is considered a kind of haven for those fleeing a bear market. CLF, which is now growing by aquiring ANR, will only be in a more dominant market position. surely a place to invest in considering the market's current conditions.
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Comments (35)
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could you define what you mean when you say destine to gain
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i mean that the buyout terms offer a premium of over 10% on all of my stocks, with some offering more than 40%.
My pick of CKXE when i picked it was an 83% pick. so far it has gained 19%, so there is a little less than 60% on it
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But its what you are doing defined as risk arbitrage so doesnt your payoff only truly result when the deal is completed?
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The payoff does really truly result when the deal is completed. is that a problem?
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Yes, because as we have seen with the resent turmoil in the credit markets many of these deals do not end up going through and regardless of the amount of research you do there is a substantial amount of idiosyncratic risk that you take on which inherently significantly increases your variance of returns.
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i agree with traderdrew - simply put it's a hell of a lot harder to get credit than it was even a year ago. A lot of slated mergers and prospective buyouts are getting canned because they companies just can't scrape the capital together. Then you see a lot of these long positions tank 15 - 20% the day of the news. Bye bye 19% gain.
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even in fully functioning credit markets there are many times when these deals fail to go through, just a thought
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Yes, the deals in the market today look like they have a harder shot at going through than in the market we had in the past. however, if a deal looks like it will result in a company which will generate a favorable amount of revenue, than the deal will go through, no matter what market, because there will be no doubt that the company can pay back whatever debt it raised to fund the deal. that is why it is important to analyze the conditions of the deal and the specifics
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look at LNY today! killer! 10% gain, and it has shot past the 20% gained mark in just 17 days. that comes along with my CKXE pick, up 30% in 18 days! as i like to say with merger investing, "RIDE THE BULL"
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Your method is over simplified. Unless you have some type of superior knowledge (aka insider information) about the deal, then you entire theory of investing is really just gambling. When it comes to merger deals the market it rather efficent. If a take over/merger occurs where Company A pay 25$ per share for company B's stock and the stock is only trading at 22.50$ then the likelyhood the deal will not go through is priced in as the 2.50$, in all likeliness, the street does not expect this deal to go through, or for it to take a while to come to completion. However the stock trades at a preium because of a new valuation due to the takeover offer. The best way to make money on M&A deals is by analyzing potentional takeover/buyouts and getting them before a deal is made, otherwise you will most likely have missed the boat. No offense but I trust the thousands of professional analyst on efficiecintly pricing the stock over "simple reasoning"
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sure, if that is how you view it. i see it differently, which is why i've made on over 30 stocks in the past 3 weeks an average of 8% (including LNY and CKXE--both 30% in 20 days).
And about analysts, many of the deals i've picked have analysts who show positive support of the deal. Just because a stock trades below the takeover price, doesnt mean it is a bad stock. if you'll notice that i said that one must look at the performance of the company, which can minimize fallout of a deal falling through.
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دردشة
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دردشة شباب من الاخر
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شات عربي
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