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2 points   posted on 07/06/08
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34%
-2.10%
 risk: conservative

Are we going to see a rally?


The dollar has strengthened against the Euro,Euro bonds are rising.Would we have a relief rally on Monday?

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INDU Dow Jones Industrial Average


Comments (8)

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stampada   60%     1 point   commented 45 days ago reply

Currency markets move in mysterious ways, their wonders to behold. It has long been profitable to short currencies of countries with a higher proportion of socialistic programmes versus those with lesser proportions. The Euro market is highly socialistic. It is not certain that the European Union's common currency can survive individualised economic strains stemming from a full-blown commodities-driven inflation upon the still-sovereign, member states. Should the Euro face an upcoming debacle, safe havens would include the buck, Swiss franc, and Yen. It is my bet that these asinine political structures, ie: European Union; the burgeoning North American Union (Google the "Amero"); and the upcoming, Far Eastern Union, will all end in the frustration that accompanies a prolonged period of global wealth reconsolidation. The CFR and Roundtables will find that their arrogance coupled with infinite funding produced little more than a modern-day version of the Tower of Babble. E. Peshine Smith wrote about the futility of such silliness as long ago as 1853. The US dollar index closed last week at 72.72. If this index can manage a rally next week to 73.16, it will have bullishly broken through a short term downtrend line and would merit consideration for a high-risk, short term speculation. However, should the index decline to 71.71, but no lower than 71.00, more work in its basing area would be required before a sustained rally could be possible. A plunge below 71.00 would be indicative of a continuation of the downward trend.

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Locationh   N/A     1 point   commented 45 days ago reply

With Europe and Japans markets closing south Friday Mondays (Today/Sunday in US) action will set the tone for Wall Street.

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Thomas George   34%     1 point   commented 45 days ago reply

Thank you for your comment.I had hitherto thought that the Euro was reasonably safe.Not any more.E Peshine Smith's work is fascinating.Googling him I came across details of the Great Depression in England from 1873 to 1896.The state was working hand in glove with the financial titans in the City.Fast forward to 2008-we have the plunge protection team working over time.The similarities are eerie.
http://users.cyberone.com.au/myers/engdahl.html

Thank you for the technical levels on the dollar-I was interested because the oil market is over bought and is on the look out for an excuse to correct.The sentiment is too bullish for comfort and a strengthening dollar might be what precipitates a correction.I am long both the Yen and the Swiss Franc since their interest rates are so low the only way they can go is up in the face of rising inflation.Thank you once again-Peshine Smith was a valuable find.

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traderdrew   71%     1 point   commented 40 days ago reply

if the government comes out with a satisfactory decision on fannie and freddie we could see a substantial market rally but short of that I dont see anything big happening near term ... but in this market you never know

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nextfundmanager   N/A     1 point   commented 39 days ago reply

we will see a rally and it should be soon, we are so oversold that eventually some of the shorts will want to get out or some mildly good news comes out and the markets rally of it but if we do see one expect it to be short lived

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loneranger   62%     1 point   commented 38 days ago reply

I think any time we see a rise in the dollar against the euro provides a great opportunity to get short the dollar index. relative to other countries the us is experiencing not monetary policy based inflation which means that raising rates will do nothing.

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stampada   60%     1 point   commented 37 days ago reply

As of July 11 the SPX is seriously oversold. However, so much recent technical damage has been done to this market that it is not clear that a deliberate, forward direction (either up or down) can establish itself without first having the market cleared by means of a blood-curdling shake out. Since successful prognostication is not in the provence of humans, an interesting trade might be the simultaneous purchase of both, out of the money index calls and puts, say for a two month duration. Should index volatility wane, then the trade is apt to be a loser -- should volatility explode, then it may be conceivable that both legs could become profitable. That's how I will play it -- but what do I know?

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Armin Stuk   42%     1 point   commented 37 days ago reply

I really don't know whether we would have a relief rally on Monday or later but the article Death of stocks? Reports are greatly exaggerated
http://asktheexpert.blogs.money.cnn.com/2008/02/21/death-of-stocks-reports-are-greatly-exaggerated/
explains that:
given enough time, stocks have historically shown that they’ve been able to bounce back, even from extremely bloated prices and eventually overtake bonds. So, for example, if you extend your notion of long term to 20 years, there’s only one of 63 rolling 20-year periods since 1926 in which bonds beat stocks: 1929-1948, the 20 years after the Crash of ‘29 that ushered in the Great Depression. And if you extend that time frame by just one year to 1949, stocks come out ahead.
So, I believe that stocks are able to bounce back regardless.


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