Check these numbers:
ADM has 613 million gallons ethanol procuction, added Decator, Peoria,
Columbus, Wallahalla, and Marshall plant production. At a spot price
of $2.7 X 613= $1.6 billion in ethanol sales. 2008 total sales are
about 60 Billion. That is 1.6/60=2.7% of sales. Cedar Rapids and
Clinton plants not operational yet (550mg).
POET is the largest US producer and they are loosing very little on
the current ( my view temporary situation)
Worst case at one of their plants loosing .08/g. POET says that Citi
analyst David Driscoll's comment that the flooding would affect 2-5
billion gallons was an "exaggeration"
3 Times in the conference call with ADM and the analysts, ADM
mentioned Brazil Sugar for ethanol when conditions were favorable. I
bet they switch to sugar temporarly to keep making profit.
ADM's Biodiesel should not be affected and mosrt of it is in overseas.
The ConocoPhillips deal concerning cellululostic ethanol and
cellululostic crude should not soon start to bear fruit next year.
This has nothing to do with corn, well maybe the barren cobs.
Ethanol industry has to much capacity by 40%, and the flooding if cut
capacity by 500 million gal would put the demand/supply in
equllibrium, according to POET.
ADM is a fabulous company and was the stock of the year by the Motel
Fool people.
It is a screeming buy at these prices.
