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September 05
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NUAN
Nuance Communications: An End to Acquisitive Growth
Summary: The acquisition machine which fueled growth at Nuance might be slowing down due to the high debt that Nuance Communications (NUAN) has accumulated in the last two years. Nuance’s interest coverage ratio is close to 1 and hence it is highly unlikely that Nuance could or want to add more debt. Organic growth across all business segments has been slowing while insiders, including CEO &...
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WMT
How Wal-Mart Really Beats Expectations
This is a classic: just last month when Wal-Mart (WMT) came in at 3% comps and people were inexplicably disappointed and then guided for 1% to 2% for August, I said, "Anyone want to bet Wal-Mart is lowering projections to avoid the current scenario next month? Now Wall St. will lower "estimates", Wal-Mart will beat them and everyone will be happy...strange stuff." Guess what happened yesterday? Wal...
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MO
Altria's Last Legal Hurdle Should Be Settled This Fall
 From the Wall Street JournalU.S. v. Philip Morris: Topping the list is United States v. Philip Morris, an appeal of the decade-long civil racketeering case against the tobacco industry. Philip Morris, now known as Altria Group (MO), is challenging the 2006 verdict which found that it and six other Big Tobacco defendants conspired for years to deceive the public about the health risks of tobacco...
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TRW
Can TRW Automotive Escape the Michigan Mess?
The problems plaguing the Big Three American auto makers in 2008 have been well-documented. The push for flashy SUVs that guzzle gas but impress at the suburban strip mall caused Ford, GM, and Daimler to shift production towards these bigger cars, but these divisions have become huge drains on profits in recent quarters. Consumers have responded to the explosion of oil and gas prices and st...
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CHNG
China Natural Gas: Growth Appears Certain
China Natural Gas (CHNG.OB) is a small natural gas utility company in Shaanxi Province, PRC. It is a Delaware registered company that transports, transmits and distributes natural gas to residential, industrial and commercial customers in China. CHNG also operates natural gas filing stations in Xian. Yes, there are cars using natural gas instead of gasoline in China. According to the Chinese govern...
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September 04
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MA
MasterCard: Driven by Global Growth
The market saw a major change yesterday. The eight dollar pull back in the price of oil looks to have at least set its price to trade between the $100 and $110 mark. This is only speculation as a new trading pattern has not established itself. If we were to listen to many of the energy experts, as with T. Boone Pickens, the $100 bottom is almost here. With that said, it should s...
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HANS
Hansen Natural: Amazing Growth Stock Now Attractive to Value Investors
Hansen Natural (HANS) is one of the best stock stories of the past 10 years. At the beginning of September 2003, HANS stock traded at a split adjusted $0.75 per share. Today, the stock trades at about $28. That's an annualized return of 106% per year! With a $10,000 investment in 2003, you would be sitting on stock worth about $373,000 today! Even more amazing is that, at this $28 price, the stock ...
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UNH
Time to Rethink Our View of Private Health Insurers?
The Wall Street Journal “Price Strategy Puts WellPoint in Bind†reports that the CEO of America’s largest health insurer, Angela Braly, is having difficulty balancing shareholders' need for profits with unaffordable premiums. To cope with rising medical expenses, WellPoint (WLP), sharply increased premiums. WellPoint lost 189,000 members in the first six months of 2008 an...
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FTE
Have European Stocks Pulled Back Too Far?
A major pullback in European markets recently has contributed to many investors growing concerned about a global economic slowdown. But have European stocks pulled back too far? We met with Zacks senior European markets analyst Santiago Burgaleta, CFA recently to get his outlook. Were there any major earnings surprises in the just-reported quarter among companies in your coverage? ...
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AAUK
CF
Guru Picks: Five Blue Chips
By Dr. Declan FallonCXO Advisory Group monitors a lenghty list of Gurus and their related market calls. But the rankings are misleading for the reasons given below. The current list of leading gurus who have an accuracy call of 50% or higher is given below. Click to enlarge:...
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PPC
Not Much Meat on Pilgrim's Pride's Bones
Moody's is thinking about downgrading Pilgrim's Pride (PPC).Pilgrim's Pride is a billion dollar market cap company with a $1.5 billion long term debt, no income, and high costs.
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DOW
Dow's Q3 vs. the Price of Oil
Now that August is in the books, let's look at where we are and update some of my previous thoughts: In the call, the following exchange was had:Jeffrey Zekauskas - JPMorgan: "Good morning. On average shouldn't your raw material costs be down sequentially in the third quarter? Natural gas has gone from -- I don't know -- $12 to $9 and oil has come from $135 to $125?"...
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SKH
Skilled Healthcare Group: Aging Boomers Boost Growth
Skilled Healthcare Group, Inc. (SKH) has been posting solid gains in 2008 as the company continues to benefit from strong underlying demand for its services. Analyst estimates have been rising, and the company's share price recently set a new 52-week and all-time high. Skilled Healthcare Group, Inc. provides integrated long-term healthcare services in the United States. Its nursing facilities provi...
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SSCC
Smurfit-Stone Looks Like a Buy Below $6
Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (SSCC) was up 30% yesterday on news that its competitor International Paper (IP) pushed through a hike in containerboard prices as of October 1.The new prices, which aren't specified, could triple Smurfit's earnings if they hold through 2009. That would mean earnings as high as $1.50 per share versus. the estimated 45 cents per share right now. And even after Smurfit's...
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CRM
Salesforce.com: Demystifying the Force
When one listens to the upbeat tone of Salesforce.com’s (CRM) management on the Q2 conference call, one is surely bewildered by the street's reaction - a 15% haircut. After all, the company made their revenue and EPS numbers- what’s the fuss about? Well let me clarify. Yes, they even eclipsed the street revenue forecast ($263.1m vs. the street’s $261m, a yoy leap of 49%) ...
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DPS
Time to Invest in the Dr. Pepper Spin
Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (A.K.A. “Dr. Pepper") (DPS) stands out from other spin-offs due to its well-known brand names, discounted valuation to comparables and added selling pressure due to its listing in a the US from a parent with a UK shareholder base. Dr Pepper officially became an independent company after the demerger from its parent company, Cadbury Schweppes (CBY) (who is also trad...
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September 03
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CCJ
USU
2 Top Energy Sector Bets
Lots of readers have asked if The Kelly Letter is snapping up bargains in the energy sector. I've found that most people divide the sector into two groups: traditional fossil fuels and alternative energy, the latter being considered solar and wind mostly, with occasional mentions of hydrogen and geothermal.However, the best buy in the energy sector these days has nothing to do with any of that. It'...
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USO
Should We Listen to Boone Pickens on Oil?
I love Boone Pickens. He has had a remarkable career, his philanthropic efforts are far reaching, and the Pickens Plan offers a great future for our country. There's just one problem with his repeated claim that oil won't go below $100 a barrel.  He has a severe conflict of interest.  Those who are banking on this man's crude oil forecasts are at risk because of it. Like clo...
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